Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 7.603039 8.756111 10.001391 11.443262 13.063705 14.825445 16.882555
2025-12-28 6.088619 7.681981 9.539047 11.851004 14.638764 17.877728 21.910611
2026-01-04 5.245503 7.021801 9.195914 12.029381 15.598566 19.917129 25.506241
2026-01-11 4.487467 6.344364 8.721289 11.950025 16.178979 21.482455 28.582174
2026-01-18 3.893448 5.778398 8.288545 11.823682 16.612583 22.804946 31.335293
2026-01-25 3.456145 5.363538 7.996977 11.828920 17.178886 24.287307 34.329623
2026-02-01 3.122951 5.050575 7.801703 11.925730 17.842394 25.897380 37.534960
2026-02-08 2.791077 4.698906 7.510648 11.847611 18.233198 27.128862 40.254641
2026-02-15 2.498917 4.373395 7.222453 11.738042 18.551473 28.250214 42.844910
2026-02-22 2.288811 4.153088 7.068740 11.806841 19.117700 29.730302 45.985890
2026-03-01 2.161118 4.052463 7.087928 12.132823 20.074113 31.804078 50.054950
2026-03-08 1.942025 3.774492 6.799081 11.949026 20.230823 32.692236 52.405726
2026-03-15 1.676324 3.391103 6.310932 11.416877 19.822285 32.726919 53.511746
2026-03-22 1.590055 3.320811 6.341461 11.735756 20.779804 34.884047 57.919229
2026-03-29 1.494009 3.221321 6.310894 11.944003 21.559920 36.787587 61.997105
2026-04-05 1.361521 3.037977 6.116330 11.854129 21.836676 37.901630 64.877510
2026-04-12 1.238356 2.859165 5.913823 11.732519 22.046036 38.906268 67.610399
2026-04-19 1.144084 2.728310 5.788118 11.736365 22.463778 40.257560 70.938704
2026-04-26 1.069945 2.631204 5.717442 11.832995 23.042493 41.889687 74.773248
2026-05-03 0.982156 2.495113 5.559752 11.755238 23.304476 42.997449 77.778015
2026-05-10 0.899211 2.360237 5.392771 11.646476 23.500318 43.993931 80.623808
2026-05-17 0.841700 2.276411 5.321316 11.714785 24.017318 45.552422 84.458158
2026-05-24 0.812887 2.256309 5.379122 12.038555 25.018916 47.982315 89.847665